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One of the tools I use for navigation is "CRNS" time, which stands for Current Rate No Singularity. CRNS measures how close we are to a given technology - or rather, how close the world is, without further intervention, if progress continues at the current pace.
For example, Drexler was quoted in a 1995 Wired article as predicting nanotechnology in 2015, so that's 2015 CRNS. Of course, because navigation is a probabilistic thing, the CRNS time (as I guesstimate by interpolating the expert guesses and adjusting for developments since 1995) is more like "a 95% chance of getting nanotechnology between 2002 and 2020, a 65% chance of getting nanotechnology between 2007 and 2015, and the 50% point being 2012" - all CRNS, of course. One imagines that Drexler would give a similar curve (1). In recent times, I've moved up my CRNS estimate on nanotechnology in response to a series of reported technological breakthroughs (2) and announced massive investments (3); it now seems that the 50% point may be 2010, or earlier.
Some other key CRNS numbers include AI at 2020 CRNS (4); uploading at 2040 CRNS (5); ubiquitous uploading at 2060 CRNS; the first true neurohacks, modified as children, become contributors at 2030 CRNS (6); the first adult-neurohack Zetetics (reengineered for greater rationality) at 2015 CRNS (7); Vingean headbands (neurosilicate or mind/computer IA) at 2020 CRNS (8). Those are just my numbers - best guesses.
The key thing about all these numbers is that each one assumes none of the other ones have come into play yet - for example, the numbers for uploading assume no access to Drexlerian nanotechnology, and the numbers on AI assume no nanocomputers or Specialists. CRNS time measures the current distance, not the dependent distance.
And that's because of the way CRNS time is used - to spot deadlines. For example, AI is 2020 CRNS while nanotech is 2010 CRNS. For reasons I'll discuss below, I would very much like AI - the full Singularity - to beat nanotechnology into play. Hence the PtS target date of 2005-2010 CRNS. Because the technologies of AI are "easy" to invest in, and relatively easy to accelerate, the PtS plan is plausible. However, trying to get uploading (2040 CRNS) to beat nanotechnology into play is basically impossible; the gap is far larger and the uploading technologies are considerably harder to accelerate.
CRNS time, combined with common-sense "ease of investment" numbers, makes it clear which technologies will be relevant to the final outcome, and what level of effort - of acceleration - is necessary to win. (Obviously I'm skipping over a lot of stuff here, like where I'm getting all my CRNS numbers; maybe someday that'll go in a separate page.)
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| Up: | Appendix A: Navigation |
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